Accuracy
Mark-to-market vs Binance USDT-M last price at ingest. This is not a take-profit / stop-loss backtest.
49.6%
hit rate
-0.13%
mean at horizon
-0.04%
mean at 4h
29,843
scored / 36,407
Accuracy desk
All scored
·
Quiet desk
·
Desk
·
Scanner only
·
Back to feed
How we score
- Entry is the Binance USDT-M last price when the signal is stored.
- Horizon depends on the signal timeframe: M15 → 4h, H1 → 8h, H4 → 24h, D1 → 72h (other TFs have a matching wait; default 12h).
- Outcome % is
((mark − entry) / entry) × 100, then flipped for Short so a move in the trade’s favor is positive.
- Hit rate is scored rows with outcome % > 0, divided by all scored rows. A flat 0% counts as scored, not a win.
- Mean is the average of those signed outcome % values.
The Live column on the feed is the current mark vs entry and is not the official score. Extra snapshots (about 4h and 24h after ingest, plus max adverse / favorable from klines) are diagnostics — they do not change hit rate.
By timeframe
| Bucket | Scored | Hit rate | Mean |
|---|
| M15 | 18,277 | 49.9% | -0.17% |
| H1 | 6,908 | 50.2% | -0.09% |
| H4 | 3,273 | 46.4% | -0.23% |
| H12 | 1,218 | 49.5% | +0.69% |
| unspecified | 59 | 33.9% | -1.03% |
| D1 | 46 | 39.1% | -0.33% |
| M30 | 29 | 69.0% | +0.43% |
| M45 | 19 | 68.4% | +0.21% |
| H2 | 9 | 55.6% | -0.41% |
By side
| Bucket | Scored | Hit rate | Mean |
|---|
| Long | 15,036 | 51.5% | +0.47% |
| Short | 14,807 | 47.6% | -0.73% |
By source
| Bucket | Scored | Hit rate | Mean |
|---|
| Desk | 23,496 | 50.0% | -0.10% |
| Scanner | 6,167 | 47.8% | -0.26% |
| Desk + scanner | 180 | 55.0% | +1.08% |
By oscillator
| Bucket | Scored | Hit rate | Mean |
|---|
| unspecified | 23,496 | 50.0% | -0.10% |
| RSI | 5,325 | 47.8% | -0.22% |
| MACD | 1,022 | 48.9% | -0.28% |
By kind
| Bucket | Scored | Hit rate | Mean |
|---|
| regular | 19,732 | 49.5% | -0.21% |
| unspecified | 7,148 | 51.7% | +0.17% |
| hidden | 2,963 | 45.2% | -0.28% |