Accuracy
Mark-to-market vs Binance USDT-M last price at ingest. This is not a take-profit / stop-loss backtest.
50.0%
hit rate
-0.09%
mean at horizon
-0.05%
mean at 4h
23,517
scored / 29,928
Accuracy desk
All scored
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Quiet desk
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Desk
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How we score
- Entry is the Binance USDT-M last price when the signal is stored.
- Horizon depends on the signal timeframe: M15 → 4h, H1 → 8h, H4 → 24h, D1 → 72h (other TFs have a matching wait; default 12h).
- Outcome % is
((mark − entry) / entry) × 100, then flipped for Short so a move in the trade’s favor is positive.
- Hit rate is scored rows with outcome % > 0, divided by all scored rows. A flat 0% counts as scored, not a win.
- Mean is the average of those signed outcome % values.
The Live column on the feed is the current mark vs entry and is not the official score. Extra snapshots (about 4h and 24h after ingest, plus max adverse / favorable from klines) are diagnostics — they do not change hit rate.
By timeframe
| Bucket | Scored | Hit rate | Mean |
|---|
| M15 | 16,322 | 50.0% | -0.14% |
| H1 | 4,436 | 49.7% | -0.24% |
| H4 | 1,378 | 51.5% | +0.38% |
| H12 | 1,216 | 49.6% | +0.72% |
| unspecified | 59 | 33.9% | -1.03% |
| D1 | 46 | 39.1% | -0.33% |
| M30 | 28 | 67.9% | +0.42% |
| M45 | 18 | 66.7% | +0.19% |
| H2 | 9 | 55.6% | -0.41% |
By side
| Bucket | Scored | Hit rate | Mean |
|---|
| Long | 11,895 | 52.3% | +0.61% |
| Short | 11,622 | 47.6% | -0.80% |
By source
| Bucket | Scored | Hit rate | Mean |
|---|
| Desk | 23,339 | 50.0% | -0.10% |
| Desk + scanner | 178 | 54.5% | +1.04% |
By oscillator
| Bucket | Scored | Hit rate | Mean |
|---|
| unspecified | 23,339 | 50.0% | -0.10% |
| RSI | 122 | 55.7% | +1.03% |
| MACD | 56 | 51.8% | +1.07% |
By kind
| Bucket | Scored | Hit rate | Mean |
|---|
| regular | 16,361 | 49.3% | -0.20% |
| unspecified | 7,148 | 51.7% | +0.17% |
| hidden | 8 | 37.5% | -0.36% |