Accuracy
Mark-to-market vs Binance USDT-M last price at ingest. This is not a take-profit / stop-loss backtest.
44.2%
hit rate
-0.35%
mean at horizon
-1.22%
mean at 4h
43
scored / 44
Accuracy desk
All scored
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Quiet desk
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Desk
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How we score
- Entry is the Binance USDT-M last price when the signal is stored.
- Horizon depends on the signal timeframe: M15 → 4h, H1 → 8h, H4 → 24h, D1 → 72h (other TFs have a matching wait; default 12h).
- Outcome % is
((mark − entry) / entry) × 100, then flipped for Short so a move in the trade’s favor is positive.
- Hit rate is scored rows with outcome % > 0, divided by all scored rows. A flat 0% counts as scored, not a win.
- Mean is the average of those signed outcome % values.
The Live column on the feed is the current mark vs entry and is not the official score. Extra snapshots (about 4h and 24h after ingest, plus max adverse / favorable from klines) are diagnostics — they do not change hit rate.
By timeframe
| Bucket | Scored | Hit rate | Mean |
|---|
| M15 | 25 | 44.0% | +0.37% |
| H1 | 11 | 36.4% | -1.02% |
By side
| Bucket | Scored | Hit rate | Mean |
|---|
| Long | 33 | 48.5% | +0.08% |
| Short | 10 | 30.0% | -1.78% |
By source
| Bucket | Scored | Hit rate | Mean |
|---|
| Desk | 43 | 44.2% | -0.35% |
By oscillator
| Bucket | Scored | Hit rate | Mean |
|---|
| unspecified | 43 | 44.2% | -0.35% |
By kind
| Bucket | Scored | Hit rate | Mean |
|---|
| regular | 26 | 57.7% | -0.57% |
| unspecified | 17 | 23.5% | -0.01% |